Jim Rogers '64 predicts 100% chance of U.S. recession
Jim Rogers Ups Albert Edwards, Says “100% Chance” Of U.S. Recession
Published on ValueWalk.com
March 5, 2016
They say there are only two certain things in life — death and taxes ... unless you are Jim Rogers ...
Apparently the recent release of strong jobs numbers isn’t enough to make Jim Rogers forget about the threat of recession.
In fact Rogers has come out as a major doom monger, telling the press that there is a “100% chance” that the United States will fall into recession within a year. Markets have been recovering of late, but the famed investor doesn’t believe the hype, writes Chris Matthews for Forbes.
Rogers made his fortune working for George Soros before striking out on his own. He now maintains that a crash is coming, telling Bloomberg TV that the U.S. is heading for recession because central banks are using ineffective monetary stimulus to paper the cracks of profound economic weakness.
"It’s been seven years, eight years since we had the last recession in the U.S., and normally, historically we have them every four to seven years for whatever reason — at least we always have,” he said. “It doesn’t have to happen in four to seven years, but look at the debt, the debt is staggering.”
According to Rogers he is a “terrible trader” that struggles to time markets. He has also been bearish on the economy since around 2009, when he started arguing that commodities were undervalued.
Although Rogers is predicting a recession, he also thinks that the dollar will grow stronger. Many people think that the U.S. dollar is a safer currency than the yen or the euro to keep their money in.
However Rogers does not think that the dollar will remain a safe haven. He says that the market belief that it is makes the dollar a money maker for short term investments.
It might even turn into a bubble,” he said of the greenback. “I mean, if markets around the world are crashing, let’s just say that scenario happens, everybody’s going to put their money in the U.S. dollar — it could turn into a bubble.”
He also mentioned that a strong U.S. dollar has usually been bad news for commodities, which Rogers is best known for investing in. It all sounds like a lot of scaremongering, but it’s worth watching the interview for yourself.
Only the future will tell if Jim Rogers is right, but at least Albert Edwards “hedged” his bet with the 99.7% odds (and that was in regards to a bear market, not recession).